Twins 2015 Prediction and TTM Update

It has been slow going in my pursuit of autographed Minnesota Twins cards since Twinsfest. I did add Paul Powell, Jim Meritt, and Yohan Pino thru the mail (TTM) to give me signed cards from 521 current or former Twins. I also received returns from Jim Thome, Michael Restovich, Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, and Ryan Doumit.

I hope to have more success with the season starting. I will be buying some of the new 2015 cards and sending them to current players. As they seem to do every year the Twins put someone on the team I never expected would make it and those guys never have any real baseball cards. This year it is Blaine Boyer and Shane Robinson who made the team, and I cannot find any cards of them, so I created some on my computer. Hopefully they are good signers.

Predicting how the Twins will do this season is purely guess work. Unforeseen problems like Ervin Santana 80 game suspension for using steroids can quickly mess up any prediction. Still I hope that Danny Santana, Kenny Vargas, and Oswaldo Arcia take the next step in their growth as players and become young stars. I hope Brian Dozier moves his game to All-Star level, and that Joe Mauer returns to All-Star level.

I am rooting for Phil Hughes to continue to pitch like he did last year, and for Tommy Milone to pitch like he did 2012. I also hope Kyle Gibson has a good year, and that Ricky Nolasco bounces back. I really hope to see young prospects like Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Michael Tonkin make it up to the big club to stay.

I hope a lot, but I know better. The Twins will have another tough season where they lose at least 85 games. Hopefully though the young players grow and become better, and we get some excitement watching the games this year. 

2014 Minnesota Twins

I have no confidence in the Minnesota Twins having any better season then they have had the last three years. I think the starting pitching is improved and the bullpen remains solid, but the team lacks hitting will hurt it more than the improved starting pitching will help it. I do feel though there are some things worth watching this season which if they turn out positively could lead to better things for the Twins and their fans in the future.

Oswaldo Arica and Aaron Hicks are highly touted prospects who have taken different routes to the majors. Arica was not a prospect from the get go, but has put up great numbers at each minor league level he played at. Arica had decent numbers in his first year in the majors, and is being counted on to provide power in the middle of the Twins lineup this year. Hicks was a prospect from the get go, but has never really justified his high prospect ranking with great minor league seasons. Hicks struggled mightily last season as a rookie, but the Twins need him to secure the center field job while batting lead off this season. Arica, a favorite of mine, is under no threat of replacement, but Hicks has to be looking over his shoulder as mega prospect Byron Buxton is not that far away from taking over the center field job.

Phil Hughes could be a very good starting pitcher for the Twins. Once top prospect Alex Meyer gets here, Meyer, Ricky Nolasco, Hughes, and Kyle Gibson could be the anchors for a good pitching staff for the next 3-5 years. Hughes has the ability to be the #2 starter behind the highly talented Meyer. Having meet Hughes at Twinsfest, I like him and have decided I am making him one of my favorite players on the Twins. Meyer is a favorite of mine as well in part because how many professional baseball players spend their off-season as a substitute teacher as Meyer did this off-season? I think not many.

Brian Dozier is another nice guy, and I want to root for his success. If Dozier can improve his offense and keep up his elite defensive play, the Twins will have something they have not had since Chuck Knoblauch after the 1997 season - stability at 2^nd base.

Josmil Pinto is another guy I want to root for. With Joe Mauer now at 1^st base, we need a catcher who not only can defend, but hit. Pinto is the best option, though I believe the Twins will start the season with veteran Kurt Suzuki as the starter.

Minor leaguers Byron Buxton, Alex Meyer, Miguel Sano, Kohl Stewart, Danny Santana, Michael Tonkin, Kennys Vargas, Trevor May, Eddie Rosario, Felix Jorge, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Joe Berrios, Lewis Thrope, and Fernando Romero have star potential. How many will actually make it to the majors and become stars? No one can know for sure, but for the sake of the Twins and their fans hope a good number make it.

As it is the Twins will be lucky to develop enough players to make the team a contender for the division title in 2016. For now it is more the same for the Twins and their fans. Still I look forward to seeing players like Arcia, Hicks, Hughes, Meyer, Dozier, and Pinto develop hopefully into better player; so here’s to a great 2014 Twins baseball season!

Twinsfest 2014

For the 11^th straight year I attended Twinsfest – the annual winter gather of all things Minnesota Twins. Twinsfest 2014’s big news was after years of being held at the Metrodome, it was moving to Target Field. Fans were promised access to the high $ Champions, Legends, and Metropolitan Clubs, free tours of the Twins clubhouse and press box, and for $5 you got to take 5 cuts in the Twins underground batting cage. Kids were promised a change to play interactive games with Twins players.

In fact all of the above was true. I took the clubhouse and press box tours, and enjoyed them. I watched some of players play various games with kids which I thought was nice. Also fans got to watch real families play the Family Feud game show with Twins players/coaches as team captains. It all seemed to go over well. I also found Target Field is closer to my home, parking was cheaper, the food more expensive, and the view of the lighted field when it snowed on Friday night was amazing.

I go to Twinsfest though mostly to get autographs. I went Friday and Sunday and scored a combined 43 autographs. That broke my previous record of 37 set in 2011. Here is my list. All were on baseball cards except where noted. Numbers next to the player means I got multiple autographs from that player.

Corey Koskie, Trevor Plouffe, Anthony Swarzak, Andrew Albers, Trevor May (2), Joe Mauer, Ricky Nolasco, Jason Bartlett, Casey Fien (2), Phil Hughes, Brian Duensing, Kyle Gibson, Caleb Theilbar (2), Mike Pelfrey, Jared Burton, Chris Parmelee (2),Chris Herrmann (2), Joe Vavra, Kevin Corriea, Tom Brunansky (ball), Max Kepler, Eric Fryer, Austin Malinowski, Glen Perkins, Kurt Suzuki, Alex Presley, Chris Colabello (2), Samuel Deduno, Scott Erickson, Aaron Hicks, Brian Dozier, Jim Mudcat Grant, Darren Mastroianni, Alex Meyer, Sean Gilmartin, Kyle Knudson, and Mike Kvasnicka

I was pumped to get Joe Mauer for the first time since 2008! I was also pleased to get new Twins Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Alex Presley, and Kurt Suzuki. The lines for mega-prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano were often longer than the lines for Mauer, but top pitching prospect Alex Meyer had virtually no line.

 

My fellow autograph seekers told me they would have liked 5 instead of the 4 autograph stations available. Some of them were upset that the minor league player autographs are no longer free as minor leaguers are now mixed in with the regular players. I was disappointed that Oswaldo Arcia and Josmil Pinto were not in attendance.

Some of the memorabilia dealers there were not happy they were relegated to the basement were it was cold, cram, and the lighting if poor. A few of them told me they would not be back in 2015. I would not be surprised if the Twins phased out the memorabilia dealers all together. Twinsfest seems to be going in a different direction.

However, as long as the Twins continue to have their players sign autograph for a reasonable fee, I will be back for Twinsfest 2015 and beyond.

Look to 2014 While Reviewing 2013

Here is an early look at 2014 Minnesota Twins while reviewing 2013 season.

 

Catcher – Joe Mauer continues to show himself as a future Hall of Famer, but  concussion issues could force him to move to 1^st soon. Youngster Josmil Pinto (age 24) has showed himself as the likey catcher of the future. Chris Herrmann meanwhile has not had the best of years, but his versatility (he can play in the OF and 1^st as well) could help him make the team as the 3^rd catcher. Veteran Ryan Doumit entered the year as Mauer’s primary backup, but his offense is down, and his defense has never been good. Doumit has one more year on his contract, but likely will be traded in the off-season.

1^st Base – Upon trading Justin Morneau, the Twins are now in a time of uncertainty at 1^st. In house candidates Chris Colabello and Chris Parmelle have been unimpressive. Trevor Plouffe might find his way over here as might Joe Mauer. For now the position is unsettled.

2^nd Base – Brian Dozier is one of the few bright spots for the Twins this year. He looks to have secured the starting job here for the next few years with his great defensive play and solid offense. Dozier is also a class human being who represents the Twins well when dealing with fans.

SS – Pedro Florimon is great defensively, but sub par offensively. Daniel Santana is equally talented on the defensive side, and better hitter. Santana (age 22) will be starting 2014 at Triple A, but likely will find his way up to the Twins in 2014, and could displace Florimon by 2015.

3^rd Base - Miguel Sano is the #3 minor league prospect in all of baseball. He is considered to have 30-40 HR a season power, and is already being hailed and the next great power hitter in baseball. Sano will be 21 next year, and the pressure from fans on the Twins to bring him up to Minnesota will be unrelenting. By the end of the 2014 Sano, barring injury, will be the starting 3^rd basemen for the Twins. Current starter Trevor Plouffe has been disappointing on both offense and defense. Plouffe could be traded, released, or moved to 1^st base. Whatever happens to him, his time at 3^rd is short.

RF – Oswald Arcia (age 22) was hailed as one of the Twins top prospects, and upon promotion to the Twins he showed himself to be a potential star player. Arcia has great power to all fields, and seems to a player the Twins can have in the middle of the batting order. Arcia’s defense needs work, but he has been forced to play left field when right field is his more natural position. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that both Sano and Arica could hit 30 HR’s a year of the Twins while hitting 4^th and 5^th in the batting order.

CF – Highly regarded prospect Aaron Hicks (age 23) was given the starting CF job after the Twins traded away starter Denard Span and backup Ben Revere. Hicks had a terrible offensive year with the Twins, and upon being demoted to the minors, he got hurt and his offensive struggles continued. Hicks is a great defensive player, but he needs to hit at least .250 with some power to stick with the Twins.

Alex Presley, Darin Mastroianni, and Clete Thomas were given chances to take the starting job, with only Presley showing any signs of life. Presley will likely start in 2014, but the #1 prospect in all of minor league baseball one Bryon Buxton (age 19) is looming. Buxton has been hailed as the next Mike Trout (high praise indeed), and the Twins are already telling fans he is the team’s next mega-star. By the end of 2014 fans will be demanding to see him in Minnesota.

LF – Josh Willingham is owed $7 million dollars next year, so he is likely back in LF after and injury riddled and mostly unsuccessful 2013. Willingham can still hit HR’s, and draw some walks, but he will never hit for average, and he is a terrible fielder. If Willingham is traded, Eddie Rosario (age 21) could get a job. Hailed as a top prospect, Rosario has been playing mostly 2^nd base where he has shown himself to be a good hitter and solid fielder. Rosario has played some outfield, and could find himself in LF for the Twins in 2014.

Starting Pitching – The Twins 2013 starting rotation is the worse in all of baseball. Kevin Correia is owed $5 million next year, so he will likely be back. Andrew Albers, Samuel Deduno, Vance Worley, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson will get chances with Gibson and Deduno having the best chances of making the starting rotation along side Correia.

Top pitching prospects Alex Meyer (age 23) and Trevor May (age 23) will also get chances. Meyer has a high 90’s fastball, and is viewed as #1 starter which the Twins have not had since Johan Santana was traded prior to the 2008 season. Other top Twins prospects Felix Jorge (age 19), Kohl Stewart (age 18), and Jose Berrios (age 19) are a few years away.

The Twins will likely try to sign some starting pitching via the free agent market, but the Twins have never been willing spenders in free agency. If they were, I would look into Phil Hughes, Dan Harren, Matt Garza, Scott Feldman, and maybe Josh Johnson.

Trades are another possibly, but the Twins have only Willingham, Doumit, and Plouffe available and they won’t bring much back. The Twins could trade some prospects, but Buxton, Sano, and Arcia are too valuable to trade. Rosario, Hicks, and Daniel Santana are probably the prospects who could get traded, but they may not be enough to bring in the need top-flight starting pitching.

I hope I am wrong, but my guess is the starting pitching staff will not be noticeably better till youngster Meyer, May, Jorge, Stewart, and Berrios get to the majors which may happen in 2015-2016.

Bullpen – Closer Glen Perkins has had an All-Star year, and it set for next year. Jared Burton, Caleb Theilbar, Casey Fien, Anthony Swarzak, Brain Duensing, Ryan Pressley and prospects Michael Tonkin, A. J. Achter, and Zack Jones give the Twins plenty of options for an area that was a strong area in 2013.

Brian Dozier Comes Through

Today's mail brought 3 signed homemade baseball cards from current, former, and future Minnesota Twin Brian Dozier. Dozier was the Twins starting shortstop for a good part of 2012 till he was replaced by Pedro Florimon. There is a lot of talk of Florimon starting at short in 2013 with Dozier playing either second or third. Time will tell how that turns out.

In my previous post I reported I was 10 out of 25 sending to current, or at least current at the time, Twins. Now I am 11 out of 25. Thanks to Brian Dozier for taking the time to sign my cards.

Update on My Autographed Twins Card Collection

I am now up to 431 signed baseball cards from current and former Minnesota Twins. I need only 227 players and I will have them all.

On September 8^th I went to the Festival Foods in Brooklyn Park where Josh Willingham and Drew Butera were signing autographs for free. How popular is Josh Willingham now? I got his autograph at Twinsfest this year, and the line was not bad. On 9/8 I showed up 2 hours early and was the 115^th person in line. The line was equally long behind me by the time they started signing. I guess hitting 30+ home runs makes you popular.

In my August 12^th post I stated I was 3 out of12 with current Twins, but was not 100% correct. The Twins have turned over their roster so much that some guys I sent to when they were current Twins are now former Twins. So I am actually 10 out of 25. Below are players who were current Twins when I sent to them: 

Jamey Carroll - signed

Chris Parmelee - signed

Cole De Vries - signed

Casey Fien - signed

Darin Mastroianni - signed

Clete Thomas - signed

Pedro Florimon - signed

Scott Diamond - signed

Rene Rivera – signed (added a signed card of his own)

Matt Carson - signed

Ryan Doumit

Carl Pavano

Jared Burton

Alexi Casilla

Liam Hendriks

Brian Dozier

P. J. Walters

Sameul Deduno

Luis Perdomo

Esmerling Vasquez

Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Jason Marquis

Sean Burroughs

Eric Komatsu

Matt Maloney

I need a signed card of Burton, Walters, Deduno, Perdomo, Vasquez, Nishioka, Burroughs, Komatsu, and Maloney, so I hope they come through, but at the moment it is not looking good.

I have Doumit, Pavano, Casilla, Hendriks, Dozier, and Marquis, but sent them different cards in hopes they would sign. All these guys have a good history of signing, so we will see if they come through.

I was 10 out of 20 on Twins minor leaguers this year. Below are my results:

Chris Herrmann - signed

Angel Morales - signed

Travis Harrison - signed

Levi Michael - signed

Evan Bigley - signed

Pedro Hernandez - signed

Eduardo Escobar - signed

Jose Berrios - signed

Dereck Rodriguez - signed

Daniel Santana - signed

Eddie Rosario

Miguel Sano

Hudson Boyd

Madison Boer

Oswaldo Arcia

Tommy Stuifbergen

Danny Rams

Bryon Buxton

Adam Walker

Kennys Vargas

It should be noted I got Sano and Rosario through the mail last year. Herrmann and Escobar have since been promoted to the Twins, and are now considered current Twins.

Hopefully my success percentages get a little better next year, but I am grateful to all the players who did take the time to sign for me.

Creating My Own Baseball Cards

In my December 6, 2011 post I wrote about creating my own baseball cards. Some current and former Minnesota Twins players simply do not have many or even any baseball cards which can present a problem for someone, like me, trying to collect an autographed baseball card of every living Minnesota Twin.

My first attempt at designing something looked like this:

I have about 25 of these type cards signed, and they look okay. That said, I thought I could do better, so I used Scribus 1.4 to create this:

Now I had plenty of white space available for the player to sign in. That worked great for the older players who did not have the most stable signatures and for players with bigger hand writing, as they did not try in vain to squeeze their autographed into a small space.

I have about 30 signed cards of this design, and I liked them well enough. However, finding clear yet small enough pictures like the above one of Scott Diamond was not easy, so I decided to experiment with some new designs. Here is the first one I came up with again using Scribus 1.4:

I got 2-3 of these cards signed, and they looked decent, but they are kind of plain. I fired up Scribus once more, and tried to get creative. Here is my end result:

I like it. It looks like something one of baseball card companies might have designed. I have not gotten any of these signed, so I have no idea how autographs look on them, but we will find out soon enough.

I hope to design some back for these cards, and to continue to create new designs. If I come up with anything worthwhile, I will try to post them here.